What happened
arXiv:2609.12115v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Phase-resolving wave models such as FUNWAVE-TVD are the accuracy standard for nearshore dynamics, resolving the shoaling, refraction, and breaking of individual waves, but their cost rules them out for the ensembles, uncertainty quantification, and real-time warning that operational forecasting demands. Neural operators promise solver-level accuracy at a fraction of that cost, yet on wave-dominated fields the accurate ones are large: hybrid spectral-convolutional operators such as U-FNO (the strongest baseline in our study after DU-NO) buy their fidelity with tens of millions of parameters. We introduce DU-NO (Double U-shaped Neural Operator), a multiscale U-shaped spectral operator that attaches lightweight convolutional U-Net branches only at its two shallowest encoder and decoder levels. The placement follows a sampling argument: high-wavenumber content exists only on fine grids, so the local, full-band pathways go where that content lives, while the coarse, band-limited levels stay purely spectral. A depth-decaying mode schedule holds the model to 3.64M parameters, an order of magnitude below U-FNO. On our publicly released FUNWAVE-TVD benchmark, DU-NO attains the best autoregressive rollout error of six identically trained architectures, improving on U-FNO by 14.9% with 10.8x fewer parameters, and a frequency-band analysis shows the gain holds across all bands, including the high-wavenumber band where truncated-spectral operators collapse. Parameter-matched controls confirm the gain is architectural: rescaled to the same 3.6M budget, the best baseline still trails DU-NO by 28.6%. The advantage carries beyond nearshore waves: DU-NO matches the strongest baselines on 2D Navier-Stokes and wins clearly on PDEBench shallow-water rollouts. Code, trained models, and evaluation artifacts are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/duno-code-5A7B/. Update (2026-09-16): From Manual Construction to AI-Driven Scenario Emergence: Rethinking Catastrophe Risk Modeling. arXiv:2609.16493v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Traditional catastrophe (CAT) risk models rely on costly manual construction to generate extreme weather scenarios, an approach largely unchanged since the 1990s. As climate extremes intensify, this creates mounting challenges to the entire risk transfer chain. This study proposes the TAISE framework, which repurposes AI weather forecasting models to produce coherent extreme weather sequences at a fraction of traditional costs. Through self-iterative generation, the framework produces continuous global atmospheric fields from which extreme events emerge. A proof-of-concept experiment demonstrates an order-of-magnitude reduction in computational cost compared with conventional methods, while capturing temporal continuity and cross-regional correlations absent in snapshot-based approaches. These findings suggest a pathway toward democratising catastrophe risk quantification and enabling dynamic, comprehensive portfolio assessment for insurers, reinsurers, ILS fund managers and public-sector risk managers.