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Benefit Ledger · verified · Climate & Environment

ECMWF makes its AIFS machine-learning forecast operational

On 25 February 2025 ECMWF placed AIFS Single v1 into 24/7 operations alongside IFS, the first fully operational open ML weather model with a wide parameter set; AIFS ENS followed on 1 July 2025.

25 Feb 2025Tier 3 MajorMethodology 0.1

Current score

+3.68

10 base · Major (tier 3 of 5, 10 pts)
× 0.8500 attribution · Primary causal contribution
× 0.8500 evidence · Multiple independent confirmations
× 0.8500 realization · Realized outcome
× 0.6000 durability
Event-level product before credit split: 3.68

First major operational ML NWP service (tier 3). High attribution to AIFS. Independent agency operation (0.85 evidence and realization). Durability medium as versions change.

What happened

After a public experimental phase from October 2023, AIFS became an operational product with support for 35 member and cooperating states. The model is data-driven, initialized from IFS-like analyses, and runs much faster and at lower energy cost than IFS. It complements rather than retires physics-based IFS. AIFS 1.1 later adjusted precipitation issues.

Model attribution

+3.68

AIFS

Operational machine-learned global forecast model.

ECMWF designed and operates AIFS; it builds on the broader MLWP literature.

Attribution 0.8500 · Credit share 100% · European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Claims

  • AIFS Single v1 became an operational ECMWF product on 25 February 2025.

    outcome · supported

Sources

primary sources

Secondary domains: Engineering

Revision history

  • 13 Sep 2026 · 0.00 → 3.68

    Initial adjudicated seed score under methodology 0.1.