{"data":{"event":{"id":"ba62e87b-aec7-4e90-945f-562c899ec406","slug":"microsoft-aurora-earth-system","title":"Aurora foundation model beats several operational Earth-system forecasts in retrospective tests","short_summary":"Microsoft’s Aurora, published in Nature on 21 May 2025, was pretrained on more than one million hours of geophysical data and outperformed operational baselines on air quality, waves, cyclone tracks, and high-resolution weather in the paper’s tests.","full_description":"Fine-tuned Aurora variants were reported to beat IFS on most operational weather targets at much lower cost and to outperform the National Hurricane Center on 5-day tracks in a retrospective comparison. Results are research evaluations, not a national weather service replacement.","ledger_type":"benefit","primary_domain_id":"99fd8a40-a540-41d3-af98-57c1709ee422","event_status":"verified","event_date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","discovery_date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","first_published_date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","last_reviewed_date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","geographic_scope":"Global retrospective forecast evaluation","affected_population":"Earth-system modeling researchers","base_impact_tier":3,"base_score":"10.00","attribution_multiplier":"0.8500","evidence_multiplier":"0.7000","realization_multiplier":"0.5000","durability_multiplier":"0.5500","current_event_score":"1.636300","confidence_level":"high","score_explanation":"Broad Earth-system foundation-model result (tier 3). High attribution. Nature retrospective skill. Realization is not operational NWS. Medium durability.","methodology_version_id":"d7881163-fb23-4e71-8625-bac1a8662c0f","original_methodology_version_id":"d7881163-fb23-4e71-8625-bac1a8662c0f","published_at":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","updated_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","flags":[],"domain_name":"Climate & Environment","domain_slug":"climate-environment","methodology_version":"0.1"},"contributions":[{"id":"b9571e6f-a94e-49ed-ade1-eadaaaa0f735","event_id":"ba62e87b-aec7-4e90-945f-562c899ec406","model_id":"6ae90dc7-43e3-48f2-a792-7f86c80f652a","role_description":"Foundation model fine-tuned to weather, air quality, waves, and cyclones.","attribution_multiplier":"0.8500","credit_share":"1.0000","contribution_score":"1.636300","attribution_rationale":"The published model is the forecast system.","attribution_confidence":"medium","first_used_date":"2024-05-01T00:00:00.000Z","model_version_if_known":null,"review_status":"approved","created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","model_slug":"aurora","model_name":"Aurora","identity_class":"named_release","is_internal":false,"family_name":"Aurora","family_slug":"microsoft-aurora","organization_name":"Microsoft","organization_slug":"microsoft"}],"sources":[{"id":"ef2bc55b-f4d5-40b8-aaa6-5c1523855599","event_id":"ba62e87b-aec7-4e90-945f-562c899ec406","url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09005-y","canonical_url":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09005-y","source_type":"peer_reviewed","publisher":"Nature","author":null,"publication_date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","title":"A foundation model for the Earth system","excerpt":null,"content_hash":null,"source_reliability_class":"high","is_primary_source":true,"is_independent":true,"is_peer_reviewed":true,"archived_url":null,"created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"},{"id":"8f24c0aa-be58-4386-b0df-506c407284ac","event_id":"ba62e87b-aec7-4e90-945f-562c899ec406","url":"https://news.microsoft.com/source/features/ai/microsofts-aurora-ai-foundation-model-goes-beyond-weather-forecasting/","canonical_url":"https://news.microsoft.com/source/features/ai/microsofts-aurora-ai-foundation-model-goes-beyond-weather-forecasting/","source_type":"developer_announcement","publisher":"Microsoft","author":null,"publication_date":"2025-05-21T00:00:00.000Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","title":"Microsoft’s Aurora AI foundation model goes beyond weather forecasting","excerpt":null,"content_hash":null,"source_reliability_class":"low","is_primary_source":true,"is_independent":false,"is_peer_reviewed":false,"archived_url":null,"created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"}],"claims":[{"id":"0a98f432-f444-404e-acfb-2676dd9b1437","event_id":"ba62e87b-aec7-4e90-945f-562c899ec406","claim_text":"Aurora outperformed several operational forecast systems on the paper’s retrospective tasks.","claim_type":"outcome","claim_status":"supported","confidence_score":null,"created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","updated_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"}],"revisions":[{"id":"2a92d9b7-eb8d-4d29-b8a9-3fc8b419c1f0","event_id":"ba62e87b-aec7-4e90-945f-562c899ec406","model_id":null,"previous_score":"0.000000","new_score":"1.636300","previous_factors":{},"new_factors":{"evidence":0.7,"base_score":10,"durability":0.55,"attribution":0.85,"realization":0.5},"change_reason":"Initial adjudicated seed score under methodology 0.1.","trigger_type":"seed","trigger_source_ids":null,"reviewer_id":null,"review_status":"published","created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"}],"secondary":[{"name":"Physics","slug":"physics"}]},"methodology_version":"0.1"}