{"data":{"event":{"id":"694f65e4-6496-4e2f-bb73-52eaac79167c","slug":"ecmwf-aifs-operational","title":"ECMWF makes its AIFS machine-learning forecast operational","short_summary":"On 25 February 2025 ECMWF placed AIFS Single v1 into 24/7 operations alongside IFS, the first fully operational open ML weather model with a wide parameter set; AIFS ENS followed on 1 July 2025.","full_description":"After a public experimental phase from October 2023, AIFS became an operational product with support for 35 member and cooperating states. The model is data-driven, initialized from IFS-like analyses, and runs much faster and at lower energy cost than IFS. It complements rather than retires physics-based IFS. AIFS 1.1 later adjusted precipitation issues.","ledger_type":"benefit","primary_domain_id":"99fd8a40-a540-41d3-af98-57c1709ee422","event_status":"verified","event_date":"2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","discovery_date":"2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","first_published_date":"2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","last_reviewed_date":"2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","geographic_scope":"ECMWF member and cooperating states (Europe and partners)","affected_population":"National meteorological services and users of ECMWF open data","base_impact_tier":3,"base_score":"10.00","attribution_multiplier":"0.8500","evidence_multiplier":"0.8500","realization_multiplier":"0.8500","durability_multiplier":"0.6000","current_event_score":"3.684700","confidence_level":"high","score_explanation":"First major operational ML NWP service (tier 3). High attribution to AIFS. Independent agency operation (0.85 evidence and realization). Durability medium as versions change.","methodology_version_id":"d7881163-fb23-4e71-8625-bac1a8662c0f","original_methodology_version_id":"d7881163-fb23-4e71-8625-bac1a8662c0f","published_at":"2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","updated_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","flags":[],"domain_name":"Climate & Environment","domain_slug":"climate-environment","methodology_version":"0.1"},"contributions":[{"id":"c96566ca-56b7-4027-9e8c-77be86445698","event_id":"694f65e4-6496-4e2f-bb73-52eaac79167c","model_id":"5b33dc1a-73fd-46f8-97ae-12c3eaa67546","role_description":"Operational machine-learned global forecast model.","attribution_multiplier":"0.8500","credit_share":"1.0000","contribution_score":"3.684700","attribution_rationale":"ECMWF designed and operates AIFS; it builds on the broader MLWP literature.","attribution_confidence":"medium","first_used_date":"2023-10-01T00:00:00.000Z","model_version_if_known":null,"review_status":"approved","created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","model_slug":"aifs","model_name":"AIFS","identity_class":"named_release","is_internal":false,"family_name":"AIFS","family_slug":"ecmwf-aifs","organization_name":"European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts","organization_slug":"ecmwf"}],"sources":[{"id":"f7e70c43-4bc5-46be-9000-c88e7d663b48","event_id":"694f65e4-6496-4e2f-bb73-52eaac79167c","url":"https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ai-forecasts-become-operational","canonical_url":"https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ai-forecasts-become-operational","source_type":"developer_announcement","publisher":"ECMWF","author":null,"publication_date":"2025-02-25T00:00:00.000Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","title":"ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational","excerpt":null,"content_hash":null,"source_reliability_class":"medium","is_primary_source":true,"is_independent":true,"is_peer_reviewed":false,"archived_url":null,"created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"},{"id":"8b366cb9-9fef-4404-8be1-9ae5e5c1efdb","event_id":"694f65e4-6496-4e2f-bb73-52eaac79167c","url":"https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ensemble-ai-forecasts-become-operational","canonical_url":"https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ensemble-ai-forecasts-become-operational","source_type":"developer_announcement","publisher":"ECMWF","author":null,"publication_date":"2025-07-01T00:00:00.000Z","retrieved_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","title":"ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational","excerpt":null,"content_hash":null,"source_reliability_class":"medium","is_primary_source":true,"is_independent":true,"is_peer_reviewed":false,"archived_url":null,"created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"}],"claims":[{"id":"f14202ea-8a3d-431d-affc-b575416d10d3","event_id":"694f65e4-6496-4e2f-bb73-52eaac79167c","claim_text":"AIFS Single v1 became an operational ECMWF product on 25 February 2025.","claim_type":"outcome","claim_status":"supported","confidence_score":null,"created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z","updated_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"}],"revisions":[{"id":"4d1cdee7-da01-45fb-8b9d-0b9707c41e14","event_id":"694f65e4-6496-4e2f-bb73-52eaac79167c","model_id":null,"previous_score":"0.000000","new_score":"3.684700","previous_factors":{},"new_factors":{"evidence":0.85,"base_score":10,"durability":0.6,"attribution":0.85,"realization":0.85},"change_reason":"Initial adjudicated seed score under methodology 0.1.","trigger_type":"seed","trigger_source_ids":null,"reviewer_id":null,"review_status":"published","created_at":"2026-09-13T20:47:20.075Z"}],"secondary":[{"name":"Engineering","slug":"engineering"}]},"methodology_version":"0.1"}